The polls have closed in the North Shropshire by-election that was triggered by Owen Paterson's resignation. If you need to return your postal vote in person, you can take it to any polling station in the North Shropshire constituency. Safe Tory seat up for grabs amid growing voter disquiet in North Shropshire by-election. At the last general election - only two years ago - 35,444 voters in North Shropshire voted for the governing party candidate, Owen Paterson. Dec 16, 2021. Bookmakers have made the Liberal Democrats the favourites to win this week's North Shropshire byelection, odds that if reflected in Thursday's vote would deliver a significant fresh blow to Boris. The former environment secretary quit after he was found . The strong Leave vote in 2016 (around 60%) makes North Shropshire considerably more challenging territory than Chesham and Amersham (by contrast around 55% Remain), where the Lib Dems pulled off their most recent shock by-election win. Indeed, North Shropshire sits just above the national average. Voters are going to the polls today in the by-election with the result expected in the early hours of Friday. South Down. The Conservatives 22,949 majority in North Shropshire has been overturned after Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan swept to victory with 17,957 votes in yesterday's by-election. The poll also puts the Lib Dems ahead of where they were at the same point in the North Shropshire by-election, where they overturned a 23,000 majority to take the seat with a near-6,000 majority . Observer's Electoral Law Breaking in North Shropshire . Failure to at least match Labour's 22.1% in 2019 will expose the Starmer disaster again Keir Starmer's candidate in the North Shropshire by-election used Or, you can return it by hand to Shirehall in Shrewsbury. The constituency had been held by the . Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. Overturning such a lead in any political climate is nigh on impossible but less than 48 hours before polls open in the North Shropshire by-election, the bookies have the Tories going down to a quite earth shattering defeat. I'm Mark Pack, author of Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, as well as 101 Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the headlines don't tell us.. 32.4%. North Shropshire looks like it could produce an upset to go alongside the one the Lib Dems pulled off in Chesham and Amersham earlier this year when they took what had been a safe Tory seat. The polls opened at 07:00 GMT on Thursday The polls have closed in the constituency of North Shropshire to elect a new MP. The North Shropshire by-election is no ordinary by-election. The Conservatives 22,949 majority in North Shropshire has been overturned after Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan swept to victory with 17,957 votes in yesterday's by-election. North Shropshire has returned a Tory MP in every vote since 1983, which was the constituency's first election in its current form. It looks like an Observer scoop may have landed the paper and the LibDems in hot water over a breach in electoral law.It's entirely common to see 'leaks' of "internal polling" during elections for obvious reasons, however an excerpt from the Sunday paper went one step further - referring to "internal polling based on . That is - on balance - 23,412 people who decided to not to vote again for the governing party in just two years. England's Jonny Bairstow has shortened from 50/1 into a best price 20/1 for Sports Personality of the Year success. 119. To provide a world-class betting experience we use cutting-edge web technologies only supported by modern browsers. North Shropshire; Election history; 2019 General Election; North Shropshire. Then, on Thursday, two surveys of Westminster voting intention put Labour well . Vote up! The polls have closed in the constituency of North Shropshire to elect a new MP. There are historical precedents, however. Some dodgy Twitter sources have exit polls showing the Tories miles out in front, others have the Lib Dems walking it, others claim that some postal votes are still uncounted. The constituency was created in 1983 and has always been won by the Tories. But the area has been true blue, only twice voting for another colour, since the Conservative Party's inception in 1830. You don't get a seat safer than North Shropshire that's been in the parties hands for the best part of 2 centuries. On the eve of the election, online bookies comparison site Oddschecker, has revealed all the main betting sites are shortening the odds for the Tories, who have held the safe seat for more than 200 years. 84.7%. I t would deal a fresh blow to Boris Johnson if the Tories lose the ultra-safe seat . Owen Paterson held the seat comfortably for 24 years, but his resignation ignited a crisis for the Conservatives, as they battled November's MP sleaze row. The drift has been gradual and its almost like the market is being moved by exit polls. Sports Personality of the Year Odds: Bairstow shortens to 20/1 after fourth century in five innings. Share of the vote is calculated as the percentage of valid votes cast for each party. The Liberal Democrats have pulled off an extraordinary victory in North Shropshire by taking a lifelong Tory seat in the by-election for the first time in 200 years. worrying times for the squirrels of north shropshire. A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire was held on 16 December 2021. Helen Morgan took the seat with 17,957 votes compared to . Between 2001 and 2019, the national average turnout at general elections was 64.7% and the constituency average in the same time period was 65.63%; just a little higher, although not so high it breaks even one standard deviation from the national mean. Traditional blue voters consider shifting as sense grows party is taking area for granted. Viktor Orban, Hungary . Labour and Lib Dem candidates have cast their votes in home towns, but Birmingham-based Tory candidate unable to vote. Curtice said the North Shropshire result showed that how a constituency voted in 2016 would be much less of a factor in future elections, unlike in 2019 when Johnson's promise to deliver the UK's . The polls have closed in the North Shropshire by-election that was triggered by Owen Paterson's resignation. North Shropshire has been held by the Conservatives since it was re-established in 1983 and Paterson - who first won the seat in 1997 - secured a majority of almost 23,000 in 2019, before stepping. A leaked poll carried out by the Liberal Democrats suggests the North Shropshire by-election could be much tighter than many expect. It was triggered by the resignation of the Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Owen Paterson on 5 November 2021. Join our Discord! Ms Morgan previously finished third as the seat's candidate in the 2019 general election. 650. Voting is under way in the North Shropshire by-election, which . [12] I n Boris Johnson's two years as prime minister never has an election mattered more than the North Shropshire by-election. Polls are not foolproof, and they do not always reflect local circumstances accurately. The Conservatives have appeared to play down their chances of winning the North Shropshire by-election after a Cabinet minister said the electorate could use the poll as a "protest vote".. After a week in which his authority was undermined by his own MPs, Boris Johnson is facing yet another major test to his leadership. North Shropshire is a constituency in the West Midlands region of England. Laughing said: I have been watching betfair markets on the by election today and the tories have drifted from 1.71 this morning to 1.92 just now. The poll also puts the Lib Dems ahead of where they were at the same point in the North Shropshire by-election, where they overturned a 23,000 majority to take the seat with a near-6,000 majority . But what does Thursday's by-election result mean for his exit from Number 10, . Switch to Community Classic App Directory The Lib Dems have won the North Shropshire by-election in what ranks as one of the most astonishing British electoral results ever. The consensus among Tory MPs appears to be that the Christmas recess has saved their leader. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive UK By-Elections news aggregator, bringing you the latest headlines automatically and continuously 24/7. Tories turn on Boris Johnson after 'earthquake' by-election defeat in previously rock-solid North Shropshire MPs say result a 'referendum' on PM and warning he will face a leadership challenge. Thursday's by-election will be regarded as a referendum on his leadership - and the polls are not promising for Mr Johnson. Voting in the West Midlands constituency ended at 10pm on Thursday, with the Liberal Democrats eying a real chance to overturn a near-23,000 vote majority. In 2019, North Shropshire voted for the Conservative incumbent Owen Paterson with a healthy majority of 41% and 62.7% of the vote share. launch community pop-up. Sports Personality of the Year Odds: Bairstow shortens to 20/1 after fourth century in five innings. UK By-Elections News. They do not typically use exit polls, as the results come far quicker, often by midnight or early in the morning of December 17. The key thing to remember is that you can return your vote by post or in person. Down and out in North Shropshire. Polling evidence suggests that Sunak (below) is significantly more popular than Johnson particularly among undecided voters in . Labour won't be putting forward former MP Mary Creagh as the 14-year veteran of the role has announced that she won't be seeking the Labour nomination for the seat. The result means the Liberal Democrats and Labour have a shot at unseating Tories with slimmer majorities at the next election. The party's internal polling, based on postal voting intention. The North Shropshire by-election results spelt a catastrophic defeat for the PM after weeks of public anger at rule-breaking Christmas dos, sleaze allegations and No10 chaos Historically, since 2001 North Shropshire has voted en-masse for the conservative party; averaging with 54.07% of the popular vote over the last two decades, where Labour trail by some 28.68% behind [at 25.38%]. North Shropshire by-election winner Helen Morgan with former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron in Oswestry Helen Morgan claimed victory after a swing of 37.2% saw her win nearly 6,000 more votes than. It would deal a fresh blow to Boris Johnson if the Tories lose the ultra-safe seat. In Thursday's vote, the Conservatives -- who have always held the North Shropshire seat and had a 22,900 majority following the 2019 general election -- came second, followed by the candidate from . Labour are claiming that they doorstepped people and found that the Christmas party scandal was a common theme in people being pissed off. #2. It's a massive story. We made our initial assessments with mid-November data from Electoral Calculus as their system allows for regional weighting. It follows the resignation of Conservative MP Owen Paterson, who was found. Tory government massively out of touch with its trad base, never mind the wall it burgled from Labour at the election. Make sure you return your postal vote before voting closes at 10pm on election day. It would deal a fresh blow to Boris Johnson if the Tories lose the ultra-safe seat. The PM's defeat in Shropshire North shows that the UK has moved on from 2016. The seat has been held by Helen Morgan (Liberal Democrat) since December 2021. Four out of five Tory MPs in Parliament have majorities smaller than the almost 23,000 votes wiped out in the Shropshire by-election last night. By Stephen Bush Photo by WPA Pool/Getty Images Party like it's March 2020! Hello! Photo tweeted by deputy leader Rayner, combined with emails begging for help, betray lack of enthusiasm for Starmer's Establishment Labour - and for former Coyle aide his opposition-averse party has picked. . Merely changing leader and carrying on as is will not suffice. Questions over Boris Johnson's leadership have only intensified in recent days, as leaks of lockdown-breaking parties in 2020 . Polls opened at 07:00 GMT and closed at 22:00. N.B. Liverpool, Walton. The polls have closed in the North Shropshire by-election that was triggered by Owen Paterson's resignation. But we used the recent YouGov MRP polls as these had the best performance at the last general election. Ex-cabinet minister Mr Paterson resigned as North Shropshire's MP, a seat he held for 24 years, following . The former environment secretary quit after he was found to have breached lobbying rules, and after the . In the 2019 general election, the Tories won 62.7% of the vote and held the. Lib Dem leader Ed. 2019 General Election. The poll put the Conservatives on 47.7 percent, the Lib Dems on 37.8 percent, and Labour candidate Ben Wood on 10.5 percent, and Green candidate Duncan Kerr on 1.9 percent. Hours left to go until polls close in the North Shropshire by-election at 10pm. To provide a world-class betting experience we use cutting-edge web technologies only supported by modern browsers. Credit: Getty. If you wanted to design an ultra-safe Conservative seat in a laboratory, you'd end up with something a lot like North Shropshire: older than the United Kingdom average by about a decade . Ms Morgan won 17,957 votes, trouncing Tory candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst into second on 12,032. Whoever gets the nod though will start as a very short-priced favourite to give Boris Johnson another by-election bloody nose. https://t.co/E6inN3Io6g Lib dems have shrunk from 2.3 to 2.04 on the same period. The party has pumped activists into the area as it eyes up a shock similar to last year's by-election in North Shropshire, when it overcame a 23,000 majority to defeat the Tories. Ordinary people disgusted and alienated by the chumocracy of toffs presided over by Fat Alex and his awful wife. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines . Turnout could well be less in this contest meaning it won't take as long to count the votes; the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election earlier this month had a turnout of 33.5 per cent, down from 69.8 per cent in the 2019 General Election. It follows the resignation of Conservative MP Owen Paterson, who was found. Owen Paterson's resignation as the MP for North Shropshire has opened up a by-election in his seat. Ms Morgan previously finished third as the seat's candidate in the 2019 general election. This a major blow for the Tories in a seat they have more or less held for two . . The by-election was won by Helen Morgan, with a 34% swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.. The by-election is in many ways wholly uninteresting. When a by-election is called in a seat with a 22,949 majority, it really shouldn't attract much betting interest. The UK's largest poll aggregator, co-founded by @BNHWalker and Lily Jayne Summers. The by-election, due to be held on Thursday, was prompted by the resignation of MP Owen Paterson. The polls opened at 07:00 GMT on Thursday The polls have closed in the constituency of North Shropshire to elect a new MP. Home Other Politics Forum North Shropshire by election. It would deal a fresh blow to Boris Johnson if the Tories lose the ultra-safe seat. Thursday's by-election will be regarded as a referendum on his leadership - and the polls are not promising for Mr Johnson. Ben Wood, from Oswestry, started his working life in a local hardware shop. "Tonight, the people of North Shropshire have spoken on behalf of the British people. The Conservatives have appeared to play down their chances of winning the North Shropshire by-election after a Cabinet minister said the electorate could use the poll as a "protest vote". This is a real rollercoaster. This a major blow for the Tories in a seat they have more or less held for two . A result in the by-election is due to be declared in the early hours of Friday morning. Orban a fierce critic of immigration, LGBTQ rights and "EU bureaucrats" has garnered the admiration of right-wing nationalists across Europe and North America. Although North Shropshire is an unusual by-election, it will not. The Conservatives hold a 22,000 majority in the seat, which they have . It was the party's second gain from the Conservatives . Brexit can no longer save Boris. That result was announced between 1.30am and 2am. Most now expect him to lead them through the winter when he can (hopefully) reset his flatlining . This seat has voted Conservative at every election since the 1830s, and voted Leave at the 2016 Brexit referendum by 60-40. . The truth is the pressure will be off Boris . There are 14 candidates standing in the election. England's Jonny Bairstow has shortened from 50/1 into a best price 20/1 for Sports Personality of the Year success. The pro-Europe Liberal Democrats are attempting to win the seat and replicate their triumph in North Shropshire, where they overturned a similarly-sized majority in a rural district last year . Conservative MPs are divided about whether or not their Prime Minister will action another lockdown - instead the government is urging the public to lock themselves down - or whether yesterday's press conference was just theatre, and an attempt by the government to look on top of Covid ahead of polling day in the North Shropshire by-election. Yesterday, in the by-election caused by Paterson's resignation, only 12,032 voters did so. All candidates had to submit their completed nomination papers by . 16 December 2021 North Shropshire goes to the polls against a backdrop of political division and Covid chaos The government is urging people to enter a voluntary lockdown, leaving businesses and households without any economic support. The North Shropshire by-election was presented in Tory circles as a referendum on Johnson's performance, and he lost miserably. Earlier this week, a snap Savanta ComRes poll found a majority of . Earlier this week, a snap Savanta ComRes poll found a majority of respondents believed he should resign over the "Partygate" scandal. The area has been true blue, only twice voting for another colour . The polls have closed in the North Shropshire by-election that was triggered by Owen Paterson's resignation. The by-election, due to be held on Thursday, was prompted by the resignation of MP Owen Paterson. A UK parliamentary by-election will occur in Conservative-held North Shropshire, with polls closing at 9am AEDT Friday. 62.7%. WITH just hours to go until voting in the North Shropshire by-election, the Conservative Party has seen its odds shorten with bookmakers. In a shock result, the Lib Dem candidate Helen Morgan secured 17,957 votes, leaving the Conservative Neil Shastri-Hurst with 12,032, and giving the Lib Dems a majority of 5,925 . NewsNow brings you the latest news from the world's most trusted sources on UK By-Elections. Boris Johnson blundered. 6:10am Monday Contrary to pre-election polls, projections from exit polls and partial results show . North Shropshire. North Shropshire by-election 2021: Ben Wood, Labour.